While Canada is poised to impose some sanctions, the initial round

Is expected to be limited as western governments wait to see the size and scope of Russia’s military incursion into Ukraine and whether it will extend beyond Donetsk and Luhansk. If it does, even heavier sanctions from the West are likely.

However, despite their repeated messages of support for Ukraine, Canada and its allies have repeatedly played down any suggestion they will send troops to reinforce the government in Kyiv. Western powers have long made clear the fate of Ukraine wasn’t worth a direct military confrontation with Russia and the possibility of a world war, so sanctions were the only option.

The entire calculus would change if Russia decided to expand the conflict beyond Ukraine and into eastern Europe. Any attack or invasion on a NATO country would almost certainly trigger Article 5 of the alliance’s military treaty, which states that an attack on one is an attack on all. That would bring Canada and its allies into a direct war with Russia.

Why does this matter to Canada?

As a smaller country sitting next to the world’s largest superpower, Canada has a massive stake in ensuring international norms and laws are respected to protect itself and global stability. Those include preventing one country from being allowed to invade or otherwise seize parts of another country. The fear is that turning a blind eye to Russia’s actions weakens this prohibition, leading to the increased possibility of war in other places.

There are also fears that Russia’s designs could extend beyond just Ukraine and into Europe. In the months leading up to Russia’s move into Luhansk and Donetsk, Putin had demanded NATO promise to never admit Ukraine into military alliance’s ranks. Yet the Russian president had also demanded NATO withdraw all its troops from the Baltics and other former Soviet republics, which would include 540 Canadian soldiers currently based in Latvia. Canada and its fellow NATO allies have refused both requests. While Ukraine is not part of NATO, a Russian attack on Latvia or another NATO member would automatically put Canada at war.

The fate of Ukraine is also a personal matter for the more than 1.3 million Canadians of Ukrainian descent, many of whom still have strong connections to their ancestral land and are opposed to Russian interference in the country. Because of its size, the community is seen as having significant influence in parts of Ottawa, and is demanding Canada support Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russia’s actions have destabilized financial markets around the world amid fears of a wider war in Europe. That affects people’s investments and livelihoods.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 22, 2022.

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